26 Mar 2020

Coronavirus COVID-19 in Netherlands, analyses of the numbers in the Power BI report

#69 Coronavirus COVID-19 in Netherlands, analyses of the numbers in the Power BI report

This blog-post and the report on: 
https://worktimesheet2014.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronovirus-in-netherlands-power-bi.html
will probably be updated now and then, when there is something interesting in the COVID-19 numbers, that I wanted to analyze, as was the case now (25-26/03/2020, see bottom of this page).

I also add interesting URL's I found, on the date I found them (most recent info is on top). 

And for another, far more creative blog, made during our lock-down in Madrid, of my
kids creations in their 'homeschooling' classes of mum and in their free time,  see:

Homeschooling en tiempo de Coronavirus


4/5/2020

EU has COVID-19 open data , for more details see this site:

https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/covid-19-coronavirus-data

https://jrc-covid.azurewebsites.net/

https://github.com/ec-jrc/COVID-19

and for some videos for a hackathon with this data that EU will organize, see:

EU Datathon 2020 - Webinar on COVID-19 and media and data monitoring

EU Datathon 2020 - Webinar dedicated to COVID-19 data

EU Datathon 2020 and EU open data with Power BI @PublicationsOffice


5/4/2020
- blog with my kids creations in their 'homeschooling' classes of mum and in their free time:
Homeschooling en tiempo de Coronavirus



03/4/2020
- I just finished (updated) my latest PowerBI report "Corona-deaths curve, comparison of Italy, Spain and Netherlands", see:
https://worktimesheet2014.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-analysis-of-number-of-deaths.html

Het verhaal achter de coronacijfers

- I read on LinkedIn, on page of UMCG :
Help our challenge lead UMCG (University Medical Hospital Groningen), which is in the midst of the #coronavirus crisis, by gathering all publicly available datasets to anticipate the spread and impact of #COVID19.

If you want to help out, please fill in this short form at https://lnkd.in/gU4Tmcv and we’ll be in touch.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases : shows for the currently top 10 most affected countries, which included Italy, Spain and Netherlands (subject of my blog-post #70), the trend (up/down).


30/3/2020
- article 'Acceptance and Commitment Therapy applied to Coronavirus', by my sister:
 https://ikwerkaanwerkplezier.nl/leidinggevende/blog/mensgericht-managen/hoe-blijf-je-mentaal-overeind-in-de-coronacrisis


29/3/2020

https://github.com/J535D165/CoronaWatchNL is now used by Dutch Red Cross (to make a report with a map of NL with COVID-19 cases).
- report of status in Madrid by Dutch journalist living here:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2328739-een-ramp-voltrekt-zich-in-madrid-en-ik-sta-er-middenin.html


28/3/2020

- Related to what I wrote below (on 26/3) about the growth-factor of the virus (= R0): I added this measure and a new chart to v4 of my 'COVID19-in-NL' report and updated this blog-post about it:
https://worktimesheet2014.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronovirus-in-netherlands-power-bi.html

- On the Spanish Github-page that I used for my "COVID19-in-Spain" PowerBI-report, see:
https://worktimesheet2014.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-in-spain-power-bi.html
and https://github.com/datadista/datasets/issues/37
I read this message, from Vyacheslav Tykhonov (4tikhonov):

Can you probably connect data from the Netherlands https://github.com/J535D165/CoronaWatchNL and Italy https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19? I'm trying to get everything in the standardized format ready for linkage.
To 4tikhonov: where can I find more about the 'standardized format' of COVID19-data? (which will have all fields in English I suppose/hope, what is now not the case for the Dutch/Spanish/Italian open data

It would be interesting if he creates an COVID19 open data format standard so that I could use my PowerBI report for all countries (with open data following this standard).

He told me that his work is here:
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/covid-19-eu

But there must be already some standardization of COVID19-data, to make reports like this:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
NB: note on this page, in table 'Report Coronavirus Cases" (sort by 'Deaths 1M/population) , that the top 3 (real) countries are 1: Italy, 2: Spain, 3: Netherlands.

https://www.databronnencovid19.nl/
RIVM-list has all (Dutch) COVID19-datasources , which includes:
 - https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus
which has a section 'Duiding' (to analyze and explain the numbers).
 - https://www.kaggle.com/allen-institute-for-ai/CORD-19-research-challenge

volkskrant.nl/de-komende-dagen-volgt-de-coronapiek-zo-zetten-ziekenhuizen-zich-schrap
says next week comes the 'peek' of number of people that are hospitalized (estimation: 1100) and hopefully the Intensive Care capacity is than ready for this. Today, my report shows 2954 people who are/were hospitalized, but not just the 'are' (actual/current) number.


27/3/2020

- I saw on reports of other countries also the metric 'patients cured (discharged from hospital),
and so with this number and the total infected, you can calculate the current number of patients.
This could be an improvement for the dataset I used for my report. But apparently this data is not provided by RIVM.

- Nice dataviz: https://www.covidvisualizer.com/

- Collection of whitepapers, dashboards etc:
https://www.lesswrong.com/coronavirus-link-database

- A friend told me that in NL, Dutch doctors say that the number of 'Corona-deaths' in NL is probably higher than the RIVM-numbers tell, because if someone dies who was not tested (positive) on Corona, the doctor doesn't have to report (to GGD, who reports to RIVM) this as 'Corona-death', even though the person had all symptoms. See:

https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/huisartsen-trekken-officiele-dodental-in-twijfel-werkelijk-aantal-sterfgevallen-is-hoger~a3aaf38f/

- On this page, I saw a nice Dutch Corona-dashboard, with a link, and then I found these good sources:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cfc2084c995c40e7ae72254029bf6251
https://nlcovid-19-esrinl-content.hub.arcgis.com/

from: https://www.esri.nl/nl-nl/home
a GIS-company who offers now free help/resources for those who want to use it for the 'fight' against COVID-19, see: https://www.esri.nl/nl-nl/landingspages/coronavirus


26/3/2020

Yesterday (25/3/2020), the Dutch prime minister and RIVM (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment) said it looked that the Coronavirus-spread was stabilizing, so not growing exponentially anymore as in the beginning. After 2 weeks applying safety measures (e.g. social distancing, working from home, not shaking hands when greeting etc.), the effect is that an infected person is now not infecting 2 to 3 other persons anymore (as was the case in the beginning, but aprox. 1 person.
For a (Dutch) article with more details, see:
https://www.margriet.nl/nieuws/coronavirus-maatregelen-werken-groei-besmettingen-neemt-af/

I googled to learn more about the 'growth-factor' of a virus ('infectiegraad'), or R0 (Reproduction number), and found this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#cases-growth-factor
which says :

Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. The formula used is every day's new cases new cases on the previous day. For example, a quantity growing by 7% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.07.
A growth factor above 1 indicates an increase, whereas one which remains between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline, with the quantity eventually becoming zero, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 could signal exponential growth
Also this video explains the 'maths' very well: https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg 
And also this one (less 'technical') I can recommend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rqpRq7nkO8&feature=youtu.be
I did a quick calculation in Excel (exported data in page 3 of report) for R0, see fig.1 for the result, and for the Excel, see Downloads below. And I also added R0 to the PowerBI-report itself.
So as you can see, the growth-factor is indeed aprox. 1 now, although today (26/3) it was a little bit higher than yesterday. Let's hope soon, the growth-factor is less than 1, so then the decline has started, but meanwhile, we have to be patient and stick to the safety-rules.



fig.1: CODVID-19 in the Netherlands, the growth factor


Downloads

#Mirror 1

http://tiny.cc/j86ylz


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